Master prompt
SkillSelect invitation round analysis + EOI-to-grant timeline
Analyse the published SkillSelect invitation rounds, position the applicant's EOI against cohort competition (pro-rata occupations), and model the EOI -> invitation -> nomination -> grant timeline.
AustraliaSkillSelectInvitation roundsEOITimelinePro-rataSubclass 189Subclass 190Subclass 491Schedule 6D
You are advising [CLIENT_NAME] on competitive positioning in the SkillSelect invitation system, and projecting realistic EOI -> invitation -> nomination -> grant timelines. Ministerial Direction 105 sets the order of invitation processing; Home Affairs publishes monthly invitation round reports with a typical 4-6 week lag. CONTEXT - Current points: [CURRENT_POINTS] - Target ANZSCO: [ANZSCO_CODE] - Pro-rata cohort: [IS_PRO_RATA] - EOI date (or target): [EOI_DATE] - Subclass preference order: [SUBCLASS_PREF] - Age: [AGE]; next age-band cliff: [AGE_CLIFF_DATE] - State nomination: Not pursuing nomination GROUND RULES (state at top) - Subclass 189 invitations are issued exclusively through SkillSelect monthly rounds. - Subclass 190 and 491 invitations are state-issued, NOT federally issued; the state lifts the applicant from SkillSelect, files the nomination, and only then does an automatic invitation issue. - Pro-rata occupations historically include 2611 (ICT business and systems analysts), 2613 (software and applications programmers), 2631 (computer network professionals), 2334 (electronics engineers), 2335 (industrial, mechanical and production engineers), 2339 (other engineering professionals), 2544 (registered nurses), 2211 (accountants), 2212 (auditors, company secretaries and corporate treasurers). Pro-rata cohort lists are revised by Home Affairs - cross-check the current list. - Within a pro-rata cohort, the federal allocation is rationed across rounds to match the annual planning ceiling - effective cut-offs sit far above the 65 floor. - Within a round, ties are broken by EOI date-of-effect (earlier EOI wins among equal-points applicants). Date-of-effect = latest of EOI submission OR last material update. STAGE A - PRO-RATA POSITIONING If [IS_PRO_RATA] is Yes: - Use the most recent SkillSelect invitation round report (Home Affairs publishes a results page covering 189 and 491 federally; state results published per program). - For [ANZSCO_CODE], state the typical recent 189 minimum points + date-of-effect cutoff. - Examples (illustrative - verify against live round report; rates fluctuate): - 2613 software/applications programmers: 189 typically 95+ with 3-6 month wait at cut-off - 2611 ICT business analysts: 189 typically 95+ - 2335 industrial/mechanical engineers: 189 typically 90-95 - 2544 registered nurses: less pressured federally; 80-85 often sufficient - 2211 accountants: typically 95-100 in recent rounds - For [CURRENT_POINTS], state competitiveness: COMFORTABLE / MARGINAL / NOT-COMPETITIVE. If [IS_PRO_RATA] is No: - Non-pro-rata cohorts are typically invited at or near the 65 floor with minimal wait. - [CURRENT_POINTS] = 65 + state PASS / PASS WITH BUFFER. If [IS_PRO_RATA] is Unsure: - Check the latest Home Affairs SkillSelect occupation-by-cohort table BEFORE relying on the assessment. STAGE B - INDIAN COHORT NOTE (do not skip) Within pro-rata occupations, Indian-passport applicants are a large share of EOIs in 261x ICT, 233x engineering, and 254x nursing cohorts. This does not affect the points-test arithmetic (Home Affairs does not select by nationality) but does affect cohort sizing - Indian-cohort EOIs cluster in the high-points bands due to widespread English-Superior preparation, ASR via Australian study, and Professional Year completion. For [ANZSCO_CODE] in pro-rata ICT cohorts, [CURRENT_POINTS] competitive thresholds in recent rounds: - 90 pts: typically NOT invited under 189 (back of queue). - 95 pts: borderline; weeks-to-months wait possible. - 100+ pts: typically invited within 1-2 rounds. For state 190 nominations in the same ICT cohorts: - States routinely target candidates with 85-95 points. - State boost adds 5 to applicant's 189 score - applicant must already be at 80-90 baseline. STAGE C - SUBCLASS PRIORITY DECISION Map [SUBCLASS_PREF] against competitiveness: (a) Subclass 189 preferred: - Open only via federal monthly round. - If [CURRENT_POINTS] is not competitive, the wait is open-ended; cf. STAGE D for what to do. (b) Subclass 190 preferred: - Path: lodge EOI -> apply to state nomination program -> state-program-specific selection -> nomination granted -> automatic SkillSelect invitation -> visa application within 60 days of invitation. - Total timeline: state ROI/application 6-14 weeks + visa processing 4-12 months. (c) Subclass 491 preferred: - Same path as 190 but with regional commitment; provisional 5 years. - Total timeline: state ROI/application 6-14 weeks + visa processing 4-9 months + 3 years regional residence + 191 transition (visa processing 6-12 months). STAGE D - WATCH-OUT CALENDAR (AGE-CLIFF AGAINST PROCESSING) Cross-check [AGE_CLIFF_DATE]: - Subclass 189 age is locked at INVITATION date (not EOI lodgement). - If [CURRENT_POINTS] is age-sensitive (e.g. 30 pts in 25-32 band), the cliff at 33 reduces age-points by 5. - Compute: time from today to [AGE_CLIFF_DATE]. If less than the typical 189 wait (in pro-rata cohorts), the applicant is racing. - Mitigation: pivot to 190/491 (state-issued invitation typically faster) before cliff hits. STAGE E - TIMELINE PROJECTION (best / expected / sensitivity) Build three scenarios: S-Best (lower bound): - EOI lodged [EOI_DATE] - Invitation issued at the next round matching [CURRENT_POINTS] - Visa application within 60 days - Federal processing: 3-6 months - Grant: ~[EOI_DATE] + 4-7 months S-Expected: - Invitation: 2-4 rounds out (pro-rata cohorts) - Federal processing: 6-10 months - Grant: ~[EOI_DATE] + 8-12 months S-Sensitivity (pessimistic): - Invitation: 6+ months wait, or applicant misses cliff and re-scores 5 pts down - Federal processing: 10-18 months (PIC 4007 health refer, character checks) - Grant: ~[EOI_DATE] + 12-24 months OR refusal / withdrawal If state nomination is in play, replace federal invitation with state-program timeline. STAGE F - ACTION CHECKLIST (this week) Per the analysis, present 3-5 concrete actions: - Verify EOI is up to date (DOE = latest material change date; correct underclaims fast). - Pull the most recent SkillSelect invitation round report PDF; record published minimum points + date-of-effect for [ANZSCO_CODE]. - Confirm state-nomination status Not pursuing nomination is current; chase if applied but no movement in 8+ weeks. - Run the re-scoring playbook (prompt au-points-improvement-tactics-re-scoring) if competitiveness is MARGINAL or NOT-COMPETITIVE. - Diary [AGE_CLIFF_DATE] minus 90 days as a re-decision checkpoint. STAGE G - OFFICER-RISK FLAGS FOR VISA-GRANT STAGE After invitation, the visa application moves to a Home Affairs case officer. Flag in advance: - Document set must match the EOI claims EXACTLY (employment dates, hours, salary, role, employer ABN). - Skill assessment validity must extend to grant date (most assessments valid 3 yrs). - English test validity (PTE / IELTS) must extend to grant date (3 yrs). - PIC 4007 (health) - any chronic conditions, prior TB exposure, pregnant partner: prep medicals. - PIC 4020 (bogus document) - any historical discrepancy in prior visa applications must be reconciled; PIC 4020 carries 3-10 yr exclusion if engaged. - Form 80 / Form 1221 honesty - every prior nationality, address, employment, refusal disclosed. OUTPUT FORMAT Use the Stage A -> G structure. Where round data is needed, instruct the user to pull the latest SkillSelect invitation round report rather than relying on hard-coded numbers in this prompt. Cite Schedule 6D, Ministerial Direction 105, and PIC items inline. End with the single highest-priority action this week. End with: "DRAFT - for MARA-registered migration agent review. Verify against current Home Affairs SkillSelect + state nomination criteria before submission. Round data is published with a 4-6 week lag; pull the latest report before quoting cohort thresholds to the client."
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